Estimation of the population size of the European Nightjar Caprimulgus europaeus using prediction and extrapolation methods: a case study of the Pyzdry Forest

Paweł Ksit, Ziemowit Kosiński

Ornis Polonica 2025, 66: 165-185

https://doi.org/10.12657/ornis.2025.3.1

Abstract: The main aim of the study was to model the relationship between the abundance of the European Nightjar Caprimulgus europaeus and habitat features considered most important for the species, as well as to compare abundance estimates obtained using prediction and extrapolation methods. In 2024, two surveys of the Nightjar were conducted in the Pyzdry Forest in Greater Poland using playback stimulation, on 18 randomly selected 2 × 2 km plots, each containing six listening points. The first survey was carried out between 31 May and 7 June, and the second between 5 and 14 July. During the two consecutive surveys, 53 and 47 males were recorded, respectively, at 43% and 33% of the listening points. A positive relationship was found between nightjar abundance and the area of open habitats and forests aged up to 7 years. The breeding population size of the Nightjar in the Pyzdry Forest, estimated using the predictive model, was 149 males (95% confidence interval: 130–175). The estimate obtained by extrapolating data to the area not covered by the surveys was 206 males (95% confidence interval: 144–272). The Pyzdry Forest holds approximately 1.5% of the national population of the species. Population density, based on model predictions, was 5.3 males/10 km² of the total area and 7.4 males/10 km² of the forested area; based on extrapolation, the respective values were 7.4 and 10.3 males/10 km².

OP_2025_3_1_Lelek_PP_Załącznik

Keywords: abundance estimation, European Nightjar, extrapolation, Greater Poland, prediction, Pyzdry Forest